Discover What PDO Means in Hockey and How It Impacts the Game

Welcome to our latest blog post where we will dive into the world of hockey analytics and explore the meaning of PDO. If you are new to hockey analytics or just starting to explore the world of advanced statistics, you might have come across the term PDO. In this article, we will explain what PDO is, how it’s calculated, and why it matters in the game of hockey.

Advanced statistics have revolutionized the way we analyze sports. Hockey is no exception, with analysts and fans alike using advanced metrics to gain deeper insights into the game. One such metric is PDO, which is a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage. With the rise of advanced stats, PDO has become a popular tool to evaluate teams and players’ performances in the NHL.

In this post, we will break down the components of PDO, how it’s calculated, and what a high or low PDO indicates in terms of a team’s or player’s performance. By the end of this post, you will have a better understanding of what PDO means in hockey and how it impacts the game. Let’s get started!

Keep reading to discover how PDO can give you a deeper understanding of the game of hockey and help you make better-informed predictions on the ice. Whether you’re a seasoned veteran or a newcomer to the world of hockey analytics, this post will provide valuable insights into the world of advanced statistics.

What is PDO?

PDO is an acronym that stands for Personal Discouragement Outcomes. It’s a statistical measure used in hockey analysis that determines a team’s success rate based on the number of shots they take and the number of shots their opponents take. Simply put, it measures a team’s luck on the ice. A team’s PDO is the sum of its shooting percentage and its save percentage.

Shooting percentage is the number of goals a team scores divided by the number of shots they take. Save percentage is the number of shots a team’s goalie saves divided by the number of shots their opponents take. If a team has a PDO of 100, it means that they’re playing average hockey. If their PDO is above 100, it means they’re lucky, and if it’s below 100, it means they’re unlucky.

PDO is an important tool used by hockey analysts to evaluate a team’s performance over time. By tracking a team’s PDO over the course of a season, analysts can identify trends and make predictions about a team’s future performance. While PDO is just one of many statistics used in hockey analysis, it’s considered by many to be a valuable metric for evaluating a team’s overall success.

Now that we know what PDO is, let’s take a closer look at its components and how it’s calculated.

The Definition of PDO in Hockey

When it comes to analyzing a team’s performance in hockey, the term PDO often comes up. PDO stands for Shooting Percentage plus Save Percentage, and it’s a metric that is used to evaluate a team’s overall performance. Simply put, it is a measure of a team’s luck. The concept of PDO is based on the idea that over time, a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage should even out to a certain extent.

Essentially, PDO is a way to evaluate a team’s performance that takes into account both their ability to generate quality shots and their ability to prevent goals. When a team has a high PDO, it indicates that they are performing better than expected, while a low PDO suggests that they may be underperforming. While PDO is not a perfect measure of luck, it can provide valuable insights into a team’s performance over a given period.

One thing to keep in mind when using PDO is that it is heavily influenced by luck. As a result, it should not be used in isolation when evaluating a team’s performance. Instead, it should be used in conjunction with other metrics such as Corsi and Fenwick, which provide a more comprehensive view of a team’s performance on the ice.

1. Shooting Percentage: The percentage of shots a team takes that result in a goal.
2. Save Percentage: The percentage of shots a team’s goalie saves.
3. The calculation for PDO is relatively straightforward. To determine a team’s PDO, simply add their shooting percentage and save percentage together. For example, if a team has a shooting percentage of 9% and a save percentage of 91%, their PDO would be 100 (9% + 91%).
4. While PDO is often used to evaluate a team’s overall performance, it can also be used to evaluate individual players. By looking at a player’s on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage, it’s possible to determine whether they are over or underperforming based on their individual skill level.
5. While PDO can be a useful metric for evaluating a team’s performance, it’s important to remember that it is not a perfect measure. There are many factors that can influence a team’s PDO, including luck, injuries, and changes in strategy. As such, it should always be used in conjunction with other metrics when evaluating a team’s performance.
6. Overall, PDO is a valuable tool for evaluating a team’s performance in hockey. By taking into account both a team’s ability to generate quality shots and their ability to prevent goals, it provides a more comprehensive view of their performance on the ice. While it should not be used in isolation, it can provide valuable insights into a team’s performance over a given period.

Understanding PDO can be a valuable asset for anyone who wants to analyze a team’s performance in hockey. By using this metric in conjunction with other analytics, you can gain a better understanding of a team’s strengths and weaknesses, and make more informed decisions when it comes to evaluating player performance, making trades, and building a winning team.

The Importance of PDO in Analyzing Team Performance

Advanced statistics have become a vital tool for analyzing hockey games, and PDO is one of the most important metrics in this regard. With its ability to measure the quality of a team’s play, PDO provides an insight into the potential of a team’s performance and helps determine if a team is performing above or below their expected level.

By measuring the number of goals scored and allowed by a team, PDO accounts for the impact of a team’s luck or misfortune during games. While luck is a factor in any game, analyzing PDO helps determine which teams are consistently getting lucky, and which teams are performing better than their record suggests.

In addition to its role in determining team quality, PDO also helps identify individual player performance. For example, a team with a high PDO may have players who are overperforming, while a team with a low PDO may have players who are underperforming.

Ultimately, understanding the importance of PDO is crucial for analyzing team performance and identifying which teams have the potential to succeed in the long run.

The History and Development of PDO as a Metric

The statistic known as PDO, or “Puck Luck,” was first introduced in 2007 by statistician Brian King. The idea behind PDO is to determine the “luck” of a team by measuring the difference between their shooting percentage and save percentage.

Initially, PDO was seen as a novelty stat and was not taken seriously by many within the hockey community. However, as more and more teams began to use the metric, its importance in analyzing team performance became clear.

Over time, PDO has undergone several changes and refinements as statisticians have worked to improve its accuracy and usefulness. Today, it is widely accepted as a valuable tool in evaluating the performance of a team and predicting future success.

Despite its origins as a relatively simple metric, PDO has become a key component of advanced hockey analysis, and its use is likely to continue to grow in the years to come.

The Components of PDO

Shooting Percentage: The first component of PDO is a team’s shooting percentage, which is the percentage of shots on goal that result in a goal. This component measures the offensive ability of a team and is used to determine how likely a team is to score.

Save Percentage: The second component of PDO is a team’s save percentage, which is the percentage of shots on goal that a team’s goaltender saves. This component measures the defensive ability of a team and is used to determine how likely a team is to allow a goal.

Even-Strength: The third component of PDO is even-strength play. This measures a team’s performance when both teams have the same number of players on the ice. This component is important because it eliminates the impact of power plays and penalty kills, which can skew the data.

Variance: The fourth component of PDO is variance, which is the natural randomness of the game. PDO is influenced by luck and variance, and understanding these factors can help to better interpret a team’s performance.

Team Strategy: The fifth and final component of PDO is team strategy. PDO can be affected by a team’s style of play and coaching decisions, such as shot selection and defensive structure.

Understanding the Role of Shooting Percentage in PDO

Shooting percentage is one of the key components that make up PDO, and it measures the percentage of shots on goal that result in a goal. A team’s shooting percentage can fluctuate over time, so it’s important to take a long-term approach when analyzing this metric.

A high shooting percentage can indicate that a team is particularly skilled at scoring goals, while a low shooting percentage may suggest that the team is struggling to convert their shots into goals.

Shooting percentage can also be influenced by factors such as the quality of a team’s shooters, the effectiveness of their offensive system, and even luck. For this reason, it’s important to look at other metrics in conjunction with shooting percentage to get a more complete picture of a team’s performance.

When analyzing shooting percentage, it’s also important to consider both even-strength and special teams play, as shooting percentage can vary significantly between these two scenarios.

Overall, shooting percentage is a crucial component of PDO and can provide valuable insights into a team’s offensive performance.

Understanding the Role of Save Percentage in PDO

Save percentage (SV%) is the second component of PDO and represents the percentage of shots a team’s goaltender saves during a game. Similar to shooting percentage, save percentage can vary greatly from game to game and can be influenced by various factors such as the quality of shots faced and the performance of the defense in front of the goaltender.

SV% is a key metric in evaluating goaltender performance as it indicates how effective a goaltender is at stopping pucks. A goaltender with a high SV% is generally considered to be playing well, while a goaltender with a low SV% may be struggling.

It is important to note that SV% is not solely dependent on the performance of the goaltender, as a team’s defensive play can have a significant impact on the number and quality of shots faced by the goaltender.

In PDO, SV% is often used to evaluate a team’s defensive performance as a higher SV% indicates that the team is doing a better job of limiting high-quality scoring chances against. However, it is important to consider other factors such as the quality of the opposing team and the style of play employed by both teams.

Overall, SV% is a key component of PDO and provides valuable insights into a team’s defensive performance and the effectiveness of its goaltending. When used in conjunction with other metrics, it can help provide a more complete picture of a team’s overall performance and potential for success.

Exploring the Relationship Between Shooting and Save Percentage in PDO

The two components of PDO, shooting percentage and save percentage, are usually analyzed separately. However, it is important to understand their relationship in order to get a better picture of a team’s overall performance.

A team with a high shooting percentage might be winning games due to their ability to score goals, but this could be masking a poor defensive performance. On the other hand, a team with a high save percentage might be winning games due to outstanding goaltending, but their inability to score goals could be hindering their overall success.

By analyzing the relationship between shooting and save percentage in PDO, analysts can identify teams that are winning games despite poor underlying performance, as well as teams that are losing games despite strong underlying performance. This information can be useful in making roster decisions and developing strategies to improve a team’s performance.

How is PDO Calculated?

Shooting Percentage: The first component of PDO is the team’s shooting percentage, which is calculated by dividing the number of goals scored by the number of shots taken.

Save Percentage: The second component of PDO is the team’s save percentage, which is calculated by dividing the number of saves made by the number of shots faced.

Add the Two Percentages: The two percentages are then added together to get the team’s PDO. For example, if a team has a shooting percentage of 9% and a save percentage of 91%, their PDO would be 100%.

PDO Regression: To account for the fact that a team’s shooting and save percentages can be influenced by luck, there is a concept called PDO regression. This involves using a statistical model to predict what a team’s PDO would be based on their underlying shot and save rates, and comparing this predicted PDO to their actual PDO.

Team Performance: PDO is used as a metric to evaluate team performance. Teams with a PDO above 100% are considered lucky and may see a regression towards the mean in the future, while teams with a PDO below 100% are considered unlucky and may see a positive regression towards the mean.

The Basic Formula for Calculating PDO

Percentage is an important metric for analyzing performance in hockey. In the case of PDO, this metric is calculated by adding a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. The formula is as follows:

PDO = (Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage) x 1000

Using this formula, we can get a sense of how effective a team is both offensively and defensively. The higher the PDO, the more likely a team is to win games. However, it is important to note that PDO can fluctuate from game to game, and is not always an accurate reflection of a team’s overall performance.

It is also worth noting that some teams may be able to maintain a high PDO over a long period of time, while others may see their PDO regress to the mean. This can be due to a number of factors, including the skill level of the team’s players, the team’s style of play, and even luck.

How to Interpret PDO Scores

PDO scores can provide valuable insights into a team’s performance, but they must be interpreted correctly to be useful.

The average PDO score for an NHL team is approximately 1000, with scores below or above indicating that a team has been either unlucky or fortunate, respectively.

Teams with a consistently high PDO score may have overperformed and are likely to regress towards the mean in the future, while teams with a consistently low score may be underperforming and are likely to improve in the future.

However, it is essential to consider other factors when interpreting PDO scores, such as injuries, strength of schedule, and the quality of opposition.

It is also important to remember that PDO is just one metric and should be used in conjunction with other advanced statistics and traditional metrics to obtain a comprehensive understanding of a team’s performance.

One common misconception about PDO is that it’s a direct measure of a team or player’s skill level. While PDO can give some insight into how well a team or player is performing, it’s important to remember that other factors, such as luck and randomness, can play a significant role in PDO scores.

Another misconception is that teams or players with low PDO scores are necessarily underperforming. While low PDO scores can indicate a lack of luck, they can also indicate issues with the team’s overall performance, such as poor shooting or goaltending.

Some people also believe that a high PDO score guarantees success, but this isn’t necessarily the case. A team or player can have a high PDO score and still face challenges such as injuries or a tough schedule.

To avoid these misconceptions, it’s important to consider PDO in conjunction with other metrics and factors when evaluating a team or player’s performance. Looking at advanced statistics like Corsi and Fenwick can provide a more complete picture of a team’s performance, while taking into account factors like injuries and strength of schedule can help contextualize PDO scores.

What Does a High PDO Indicate?

Success: A high PDO generally indicates that a team or player is having success. It means they are scoring a high percentage of their shots and that their goaltender is making a high percentage of saves.

Luck: While a high PDO can be a sign of success, it can also be attributed to luck. A team or player may be scoring on low-quality shots or facing weak opposition, which can lead to a temporary boost in their PDO.

Regression: Teams or players with a high PDO may be due for regression to the mean. A PDO above 1000 is generally unsustainable in the long term, as shooting and save percentages tend to regress to the mean over time.

Analysis: PDO can be a useful metric for analyzing a team or player’s performance, but it should not be used in isolation. Other factors, such as shot quality and strength of schedule, should also be considered when evaluating performance.

The Positive Effects of a High PDO Score

A high PDO score is often indicative of a team that is performing well and is on a winning streak. When a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage are both above average, it can lead to increased confidence and momentum, which can in turn lead to more wins.

Teams with a high PDO score also tend to have a greater chance of making it to the playoffs and going deep into the postseason. This is because they have the ability to score goals and prevent goals, which are both crucial elements in a successful playoff run.

Additionally, a high PDO score can have positive effects on individual player performance. Players on teams with a high PDO score may feel more confident in their abilities and be more likely to take risks and try new things on the ice.

The Challenges of Maintaining a High PDO Score

Regression to the mean: While a high PDO score can indicate a team’s success, it may not be sustainable in the long term. Over time, teams tend to regress to their mean performance levels, and a team with a high PDO score may see a drop in their success rate.

Luck and randomness: PDO is heavily influenced by luck and randomness. A team with a high PDO score may have had more than their fair share of good bounces or lucky breaks, which may not continue in the future.

Injuries and other external factors: Injuries to key players or other external factors beyond a team’s control can greatly affect their ability to maintain a high PDO score. A team that loses its top scorer or starting goaltender, for example, may see their PDO drop significantly.

Examples of NHL Teams with High PDO Scores and Their Success Rates

There have been several NHL teams in recent years that have had high PDO scores, which has contributed to their success. One example is the 2017-2018 Vegas Golden Knights, who finished with a PDO of 102.0, the highest in the league that season. They went on to reach the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, an incredible feat for an expansion team.

Another team that has consistently had a high PDO score is the Tampa Bay Lightning. They finished with a PDO of 101.5 during their 2018-2019 Presidents’ Trophy-winning season, and their high PDO has contributed to their success over the past few seasons. They won the Stanley Cup in 2020 and made it to the semifinals in 2021.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have also had success with a high PDO score. During their back-to-back Stanley Cup championship seasons in 2016 and 2017, they finished with PDOs of 100.7 and 101.2, respectively.

Finally, the 2021-2022 Colorado Avalanche had the highest PDO in the league, finishing with a score of 102.While they were ultimately eliminated in the second round of the playoffs, their high PDO was a contributing factor to their success in the regular season.

What Does a Low PDO Indicate?

Unlucky is the first word that comes to mind when thinking about a low PDO score. A low PDO score indicates that a team or player is not getting the results they deserve based on their performance.

Regression is another word that is commonly associated with a low PDO score. Regression to the mean is a statistical phenomenon that suggests that over time, things will tend to even out, so a low PDO score may be an indication that a team or player is due for some positive results in the future.

Flawed strategy could also be a reason for a low PDO score. If a team or player is consistently taking low-percentage shots or making poor decisions, their PDO score may suffer as a result.

The Negative Effects of a Low PDO Score

A low PDO score may indicate that a team is experiencing some or all of the following:

Unlucky Bounces: A team with a low PDO score may be experiencing a string of bad luck, resulting in pucks hitting posts or crossbars instead of finding the back of the net, or shots that are deflected by a defender’s stick instead of going through to the goalie.

Defensive Issues: A team with a low PDO score may have defensive issues, such as poor goaltending or ineffective defensive coverage. This may result in an unusually high number of goals being scored against the team, which can drag down their overall score.

Offensive Struggles: A team with a low PDO score may be struggling to generate offense, resulting in a low number of goals scored despite a high number of shots on net. This could be due to a lack of scoring talent or ineffective strategies in the offensive zone.

Overall Poor Performance: A low PDO score may be indicative of an overall poor performance by a team. This could be due to a variety of factors, such as injuries, lack of chemistry, or coaching issues.

It is important to note that a low PDO score does not necessarily mean a team is doomed for failure. However, it may indicate areas where the team needs to improve in order to see success on the ice.

Factors That Can Contribute to a Low PDO Score

A low PDO score can be an indication of several issues within a hockey team. Some of the factors that can contribute to a low PDO score include:

• Injuries: Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team’s ability to score goals and prevent goals against, which can lead to a low PDO score.
• Goaltending: Poor goaltending performance, such as a low save percentage, can result in a low PDO score.
• Offensive struggles: Teams that struggle to generate scoring opportunities or convert on their chances will often have a low PDO score.
• Defensive breakdowns: Teams that have difficulty preventing goals against, either due to poor defensive play or ineffective goaltending, may see their PDO score suffer as a result.

It’s important to note that a low PDO score does not necessarily indicate that a team is performing poorly overall. A team may be playing well and generating quality chances, but simply having bad luck with their shooting and save percentages. However, a sustained period of low PDO scores may indicate deeper underlying issues that need to be addressed.

How Can Understanding PDO Help Your Hockey Analysis?

Enhance your predictive analysis: By incorporating PDO into your analysis, you can have a better understanding of which teams are performing well or poorly and predict how they might perform in the future.

Identify teams to bet on: PDO can help you identify teams that are likely to regress to the mean, meaning they are underperforming or overperforming, and are good targets for a bet.

Refine your roster construction: Understanding PDO can help you identify players who are underperforming or overperforming, and make more informed decisions about which players to draft, trade or sign as free agents.

Get a more complete picture: PDO can provide a more complete picture of a team’s performance by taking into account factors like goaltending, shooting and luck that traditional statistics may not capture.

Using PDO as a Tool for Predicting Future Team Performance

One of the most valuable uses of PDO is as a predictive tool for future team performance. Teams with a high PDO score are likely to experience a decline in shooting and save percentages in the future, while those with a low PDO score are likely to see an increase in those percentages.

By analyzing a team’s PDO score, you can predict whether their current success is sustainable or whether it is likely to regress. This information is particularly valuable for bettors and fantasy hockey players, who can use it to make informed decisions about which teams and players to bet on or draft for their fantasy teams.

Additionally, analyzing a team’s PDO score in conjunction with other advanced statistics, such as Corsi and Fenwick, can provide even more insights into a team’s performance and potential for future success.

Overall, understanding PDO can be an incredibly useful tool for anyone involved in hockey analysis, providing valuable insights into team and player performance and potential for future success.

Frequently Asked Questions