In hockey, the records matter. A lot. The better your record, the more options you have for the postseason. But just because you had a good record doesn’t mean you’ll automatically make it to the playoffs. There are lots of teams that had a better record than you, but they didn’t make the playoffs either.
So how can you tell how good a team is just from looking at their record? There are definitely metrics you can use, like shooting percentage and goals-against average, but not all the sites that track hockey stats are made equal. Some of them lack clarity in their definitions, and some are simply too inconsistent to trust.
That’s why we’ve compiled this guide on how to read a hockey win-loss record. We’ll teach you the ins and outs of making the right comparisons and interpreting tournament results. Let’s get to it.
Table of Contents
Consider The Competition
One of the most important things to keep in mind when reading a hockey win-loss record is the strength of the teams you’re comparing it to. The last thing you want to do is compare a team that is in a slump to one that is having a great season, since they would likely cancel each other out. The same principle applies when looking at the overall quality of a league or whether or not a team is over or underperforming based on their usual level of play.
To get the full effect of a team’s performance, you should always compare them to the teams that are the closest in strength to them. In the 2018–19 season, the New York Islanders had a losing record (11–19–4) against the Metropolitan Division and their opponents had a combined record of 59–28–3. But when they played the rest of the teams in the NHL, they had a record of 12–3–2, showing the difference in strength against the rest of the hockey world.
Goaltending Is Everything
One of the things that can make or break your chances of winning or losing a hockey game is goaltending. Having a great goalie is a great way to be the difference in a game, as they can keep you in it even when you’re playing badly. But having an average goalie is sure to hurt your chances of winning more games than it helps.
Aside from skill, a good goalie’s ability to make the right save at the right time can be the difference between winning and losing a game. In addition, defensemen are responsible for keeping the puck out of the net, limiting rebounds and preventing goals, so they too, can play a crucial role in victory or defeat. Goaltenders have gotten so much better over the years that the difference in talent between them and the defensemen is really noticeable these days.
Expect The Unexpected
Believe it or not, the most important thing to consider when reading a hockey win-loss record is how they break down. There will always be some games where a team wins by a wide margin and others where they barely squeak by with a victory. One thing you should always keep in mind is that there’s no clear-cut pattern to these differences, and it’s often hard to tell what would have happened if certain plays had been called differently.
If you’re trying to make sense of a bad hockey game, it can be difficult to pinpoint which player or which team tactic was the root cause of the problem. Different players have different roles on different teams, so the situations they find themselves in might be different, as well. For example, if a team is losing by one goal and then a red light is turned on, it could be the goalie’s fault for not coming out far enough or it could be the defensemen’s fault for not clearing the puck out of their zone quickly enough.
Use The Right Tools
As mentioned earlier, not all the websites that track hockey stats are created equal, and many of them can be extremely difficult to use correctly. The best thing you can do for yourself is to make sure that the stats you’re looking at are compiled using the right formulas, adjusted for the strength of the teams you’re comparing them to. If you don’t know how to do this, then it’s probably best to just ignore the stats altogether and look at how a team plays instead.
One of the main reasons why many fans dislike hockey stats is because of all the weird numbers that get thrown around. When a team has a losing record, people will often point to a particular statistic that they think is responsible: the power play or the penalty kill, for example. But these numbers can vary widely year to year, and it’s not always obvious what they mean. In addition, there are so many different stats that can be used to measure a team’s performance, and many of them seem to contradict each other.
Luckily, there is an easy solution to all this. Many leagues, including the NHL, now compile Stats2 into their records, making it much easier to compare and contrast teams based on their performances. In addition to being able to track almost all the stats you could want or need (including goaltending), using Stats2 is much clearer than looking at raw winning and losing records, as it factors in all the games played by each team. This means that even teams with losing records can end up with a better overall performance based on how often they play better than their record would indicate.
Watch The Corsi Percentage
One of the many stats tracked by Stats2 is Corsi percentage. This stat, which is simply the percentage of all the shot attempts a team is generating that are placed on the ice by the players on that team, is one of the most important measurements of puck possession in hockey. In general, the higher the percentage, the better, as this shows that the team is controlling the play and creating more opportunities for themselves to score.
When watching a game and seeing a team with a high Corsi percentage, it’s usually a safe bet that they’re in control of the play and are dominating the action. But on the other hand, a low Corsi percentage can be an indication that the team is struggling to keep the puck in the game and is giving the other team more opportunities to score.
Use The Win Probability
The last but not least, and probably the most important piece of advice when reading a hockey win-loss record, is to look at the win probability. Just like any other stat tracked by hockey analytics, this one can vary from game to game, but it will always be shown in relation to two things: the score and the time left in the game.
When the game is in the fourth period, and your team is losing by one goal, it’s usually a good idea to sit back and relax. The game is almost over, and even if you have the ability to tie or take the lead, it’s very unlikely that your team is going to win the game.
On the other hand, it’s never a good idea to sit back and relax when the score is close and the game is in the third period. Especially not in hockey. One good or bad goal in the last few minutes of the game can totally change the outcome. In fact, a team that is trailing by one goal in the third period has a 60% win probability, according to Stats2. This number drops almost immediately after the third period, reaching its nadir in the dying moments of a game, when it has a 38% win probability.
Make The Right Comparisons
One of the things that can make or break your chances of reading the right conclusions from a hockey win-loss record is proper team comparisons and the use of the right metrics. After all, just because a team had a good record last year doesn’t mean they’ll have the same level of performance this year, and vice versa. With this in mind, let’s take a quick look at how to read and compare hockey win-loss records.
Take Different Factors Into Account
Just because a team had a good record last year doesn’t mean they’ll have the same level of performance this year. It all depends on a variety of factors, including the strength of the teams they played in comparison, their role in the success of those teams and whether or not they got any luck on their side. Just because a team had a good record doesn’t mean they’ll have the same level of performance this year. It all depends on a variety of factors, including the strength of the teams they played in comparison, their role in the success of those teams and whether or not they got any luck on their side.