This year’s NHL playoffs have presented an interesting conundrum for hockey fans: is there a shootout involved?
Usually, the answer to this question is no. In the playoffs, the winning goal differential determines who moves on to the next round. In the previous three seasons, the team with the highest number of goals scored has always made it to the semi-finals and beyond. This is a clear indication that shootouts are not needed in the NHL playoffs.
However, this year’s playoffs have presented us with a rare occurrence. Between April 13 and April 18, all of the regular season series were won by the team that scored the most goals. In the entire history of the NHL, there has never been a season where the goal differential was so tight that all of the games had to go into sudden death overtime. In other words, is there a shootout in the 2019 NHL playoffs?
To find out, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. Since 2003, when the NHL adopted the 3-on-3 overtime for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there have been only two occasions when the winning goals were so evenly matched that all three games had to end in a tie. The first was in 2012, when the New Jersey Devils defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins by a 3-3 goal differential in the first round. The second was last year, when the San Jose Sharks topped the Vegas Golden Knights by the same margin in the first round. In both cases, the teams that reached the semifinals had to go through a shootout to determine their opponent.
One could argue that these two seasons were an anomaly and that the three-round-overtime format is the new normal when it comes to the NHL Playoffs. But this year’s playoffs have followed a similar path, with all eight of the first-round series going to a shootout. So, is the three-round-overtime format in the NHL Playoffs just a fluke or is there more to it than meets the eye?
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Theory #1: The Three-Rounds-Overtime Format Is Here To Stay
One of the biggest criticisms leveled at the NHL in recent years is that the game has become too soft. Goaltending has been praised to the skies, while defensemen have been granted a new identity: ‘hybrid forward’ or ‘blended forward.’ The result has been a drop in the quality of hockey played in the league. Critics will point to the 3-on-3 overtime and the fact that goalies now have the option to play a 3-in-3 as signs that the game has gone in the right direction.
That argument might hold some water if the regular season had followed a similar pattern. After all, if the goal differentials have been so close for an entire season, why change the format now? But, in 2019, the story is very different. The goal differential in the regular season was 644 goals for and 624 goals against, meaning there was a margin of 20 for the winning team. For context, consider that from 2015-2019, the average differential was 495 goals for and 501 goals against. So, over the past three seasons, the goal differential has increased by 119 goals.
This is mainly thanks to a combination of two factors. The first is that the 3-on-3 overtime has allowed teams to win games that they would have lost in regulation time. The second is that the skill level of the players has increased, resulting in higher scoring rates. Finally, the adoption of hybrid icing has made the game more exciting and helped create more goals per game.
Based on all of this, one could make the case that the 3-on-3 format is here to stay in the NHL. After all, if a team with 101 regular season wins is forced to go the extra mile in the playoffs, is that really such a bad thing? More importantly, if everything goes according to plan and the teams with the highest goal differentials advance, will they be facing off in the Finals without having to go through a shootout?
Theory #2: The Increasing Need For Shootouts In The Playoffs
While the 3-on-3 format has certainly benefitted the NHL, one could make the case that it has done so at the expense of the shootout. After all, take a look at the last three seasons and the eight games that had to be decided by a shootout. In 2011-2013, there were only two shootouts. In 2014-2018, there were only four and in 2019, there were five.
The trend is clear: over the past seven years, the number of shootouts in the playoffs has increased by 23. While some of this can be attributed to the 3-on-3 format being tweaked to include a fourth official, the increasing popularity of shootouts in the playoffs is a result of two primary factors.
The first is that teams are realizing the importance of having a ‘go-to’ method for winning hockey games. During the regular season, teams would often settle for a single goal in close games. But in the playoffs, taking more than one goal is commonplace and even required in some situations. This is evidenced by the seven one-goal wins in the first round of the 2019 playoffs. The second factor is that since 2014, the NHL has adopted a faster pace of play, resulting in more goals per game. Finally, the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs featured a combined 648 goals, which is the highest total since 2008 and the third-highest total since the start of the 21st century. So, even if the skills level of the players has increased, one could argue that the ‘old’ NHL is making a comeback and that the need for shootouts has increased as a result.
Which theory is more accurate? It likely depends on your perspective. Those who believe that the game has gotten too easy might argue that the 3-on-3 format and the lack of a shootout is a perfect example of this. But for those who look at the numbers, the increasing need for shootouts in the playoffs might be more accurate and is a sign that the game has begun to right the ship.