The concept of using historical statistics to predict future game results is known as ‘Matchup Analysis’. This method has been around since the early 1900s but has largely been considered a “niche analytical tool” within the hockey community. However, over the past decade, it has gained popularity and started being used more and more often in fantasy hockey leagues.
What is it?
Matchup Analysis looks at the historical results of two teams that have faced each other many times throughout their respective careers. In fantasy hockey, the results of these games are collected and used to determine which players on each team are most and least likely to score a given night, as well as which players on one team are most likely to score versus a specific player on the opposing team.
The idea behind Matchup Analysis is to take the uncertainty out of projection by allowing players to look at historical data to predict how a game might turn out. For example, if you’re playing the Tampa Bay Lightning this season and notice that, over the past few years, they’ve always defeated the Montreal Canadiens, you might want to purchase Andrei Vasilevskiy as your starter goaltender.
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How Does It Work?
In order to perform Matchup Analysis, you will need access to two of everything: games played, goals scored and allowed, shots on goal, and saves made (both for and against). You can download all of this data easily from websites like hockey-reference.com, hockeydb.com, and teamrankings.com. Once you have all of this data, you are able to run the numbers and see all kinds of useful information.
So, for example, let’s say you are doing a Matchup Analysis on the current season and you notice that the Toronto Maple Leafs have only lost twice to the Montreal Canadiens. You can use this information to determine which players on each team are most and least likely to score a given night. You can also use the data to reveal which players on one team are most likely to score versus a specific player on the opposing team.
When Do You Use It?
In all likelihood, you will want to use Matchup Analysis at the end of October or the start of November since the majority of players have been active for a couple of months, and there are a decent number of games to work with. After that, you might want to look at expanding your pool of players or swapping out a starter or two.
Why Fantasy Hockey?
Using historical statistics to predict future game results is something that has always been considered “non-traditional” or “niche” in hockey. However, in recent years, fantasy hockey has become so popular that teams are actually building their lineups based on this analysis. The majority of fantasy hockey players rely on statistics and numbers to determine who are the best players based on their projections for the upcoming season. It’s an easy way to make sense of the immense amount of information that is available.
Traditional hockey fans might look at this and say that it’s a gimmick, that it doesn’t take into account all the intangibles that go into a hockey game. They might say that, in the end, it’s just a matter of who is going to win the game based on skill – nothing more. These people would be wrong.
The fact is that skill alone doesn’t always win games – sometimes, it’s who is better at using that skill that wins. If you’ve ever played hockey before, you know that there is a lot more to it than simply having the puck and being able to shoot it. It takes strategy, work ethic, and a willingness to engage in physical play. These are all aspects that are incorporated into Matchup Analysis in some form or another.
If you’re looking for a fun way to add another layer of strategy to your fantasy hockey game, give it a try. You might be pleasantly surprised at how effective it can be.